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April 7, 2008

KU vs. Memphis: Attack of the Doppelgänger (NCAA Tournament)

Filed under: NCAA Tournament, Sports — Red @ 2:10 pm

The closest anyone will ever come to seeing Dick Vitale crestfallen was right after Kansas handed North Carolina their dignity in last Saturday’s Final Four game. Likewise, after Memphis rolled to victory on a lopsided win over UCLA, the rest of basketball’s great analytical minds simultaneously reached for the aspirin.

So here we are, with heavily favored UCLA and overall No. 1 seeded North Carolina bounced from the tourney. And what’s the most popular adjective used to describe last weekend’s games? Boring. Boring?! People never cease to amaze me.

In a year when history was made with each No. 1 seed reaching the Final Four, in a year when everyone’s brackets had more chalk on it than a blackboard in a third grade school room, there’s still a feeling of disappointment that Kansas and Memphis are tipping off for all the marbles tonight.

Before the Final Four games, people said the tournament “worked”. They said we’re finally seeing the Final Four we were always supposed to see, but now that UNC and UCLA aren’t in the title game, people are saying the ratings for tonight’s championship will be in the tank.

How, dear readers, is that even possible? How can we be given perfect Final Four games one day, and end up with an imperfect game today?

If a person bothered to notice the stuff both Kansas and Memphis are made of, they would realize that tonight’s game promises to be incredible. The only stark difference between Kansas and Memphis are their zip codes. For all intensive purposes, the Jayhawks are the Tigers’ Doppelgänger, and vice versa.

If you are the type of person who feels like UNC is hands down the best team in the nation, and if it were possible, how does the notion of UNC vs. UNC sound to you? What’s better than a Hansbrough/Love match up? How about a Hansbrough/ Hansbrough match up?

Hyperbole aside, that sort of prospect is what you’re getting in KU/Memphis.

The Tigers play an airtight defense that could cause problems for Kansas’ explosive speed. On the other hand, Kansas has an airtight defense that could cause problems for Memphis’ explosive speed.

See where I’m going with this?

Kansas’ Sherron Collins is a huge X factor in this game. He’s outplayed UNC’s Ty Lawson in the semis and has been a huge factor in Kansas’ dominance. Collins’ speed and explosive scoring skills create a three-headed monster for Kansas that’s been unstoppable of late.

But the three-headed monster in Memphis is Derrick Rose, Derrick Rose, and Derrick Rose. UCLA tried to pressure Rose continuously on Saturday, and look where that got them. But if KU decides to give Rose some air and let him in the lane, well, that’s trouble as well. Rose is so comfortable in the lane that he’s got a timeshare there.

Whoever wins this will do it by a narrow margin, and the only thing I can guarantee about tonight’s game is a spike in the nations blood pressure.

For those who even think it’s interesting, that is.

–Joey Alfino, RED Editorial Staff.

March 31, 2008

The fickle finger of basketball fans (NCAA Tournament)

Filed under: NCAA Tournament, Sports — Red @ 11:45 am

Kansas and coach Bill Self survived Davidson (barely) last night 59-57, turning the stagecoach that brought Davidson to the Elite Eight back into a pumpkin and punching Bill Self’s first ever Final Four dance card.

All the teams in this year’s Final Four are No. 1 seeds, and some fans have a smug sense of satisfaction about it. As if we’re seeing things like they are supposed to be. Like the tournament finally “worked”. How fickle we are. Everybody loves the Cinderella team—as long as they don’t overstay their welcome.

In the early rounds of March, people love predicting upsets. They love seeing the big guy go down early, and they love predicting it. Most people I talked to after the first round pretty much said the same thing:

“Dude . . . Sienna? Are you kidding me? SIENNA?!”

The shock factor is what keeps the tournament so irresistible, but apparently our love affair with the underdog is matter of convenience rather than practicality. Seems to be the case with Davidson, anyway.

You’d be crazy not to hand it to Stephen Curry and the Davidson team. Every single tournament has its upstarts, and no matter how many dictionaries you use, you won’t find a better definition than the Wildcats.

The country loved them, too. Stephen Curry has been called the “Sophomore Sensation”, and Davidson was quickly dubbed “America’s Sweethearts”. But this morning, people have dropped Davidson with a thud sounding eerily similar to Jason Richards’ last-ditch three-point attempt to steal a win from Kansas.

Now, after all of Davidson’s talented, gritty, and honest play, people are describing them as “plucky”. Isn’t that cute?

Hindsight is 20/20, I suppose, and now that every single basketball powerhouse that started this tournament is still in it, some people think it would have been weird or even awkward if Davidson had beaten Kansas for a spot in the Final Four.

As if Davidson really wouldn’t have belonged there after all. As if Davidson’s losing were for the best.

Would North Carolina have crushed Davidson? Probably, but they managed to put the brakes on Kansas and that’s saying something.

I’m just as excited as the next guy over all four No. 1 seeds still remaining. It’s never happened before and we’re going to see some heavyweight basketball, but I don’t think it’s fair for anyone to be so dismissive of Davidson.

I don’t think it’s fair for any of us to say they don’t belong in the Final Four. They didn’t technically belong in the Elite Eight, either. Those kids can play, and they proved it.

The tournament is designed with the sole purpose of protecting No. 1 seeds as long as possible. The bracket favors them by design. So what’s more impressive here, Stephen Curry, or finally getting the Final Four we’re “supposed” to have?

If this is the way things are supposed to be every year, why bother playing a tournament?

–Joey Alfino, RED Editorial Staff.

March 27, 2008

John Calipari is optimistic to a fault (NCAA Tournament)

Filed under: NCAA Tournament, Sports — Red @ 10:24 am

John Calipari and his Memphis Tigers will play their Sweet Sixteen game against Michigan State tomorrow, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Calipari turns down every interview request between now and tip-off.

He’s tired of telling the media that free throws don’t matter. Or maybe he’s just fed up with no one believing him.

You’ve got to admire Calipari’s cavalier attitude when it comes to the topic of foul shooting. He handles denial like a pro. Whenever he’s asked about it, he dismisses it.

Maybe Calipari is trying to stay positive. That’s understandable. What coach in his right mind would go on national television and tell the country how bad his team is at foul shooting? But Calipari is optimistic to a fault. Just because Calipari doesn’t want to acknowledge the problem doesn’t mean it’s not there.

The Memphis Tigers are a great basketball team. They deserve their No. 1 seed, they’ve got a fast offense, a great defense . . . and I think Michigan State is going to beat them tomorrow night.

The simple fact is, at some point in the NCAA Tournament a team has to shoot well from the line if they want to keep winning, and from the line, Memphis just plain stinks.

The Tigers have a 59 percent free throw average. That’s the second-worst in Division I basketball, and the absolute worst of the 16 teams left in the tourney. Calipari is a great coach, but if he thinks foul shooting isn’t an issue I’d like to buy some real estate on that cloud he’s living on.

Last Sunday, Memphis got a scare when they beat Mississippi State by only three points. I understand a win is a win, which is what Calipari would point to, but Memphis shot 15-32 from the foul line for that game. That’s 46 percent. Yikes.

Just to quote some numbers, only one team since 1985 has shot less than 65 percent and still won the national title, Connecticut in 2004. Outside of that, only two other teams in history have won a title shooting less than 60 percent from the line, City College of New York in 1950 and Oklahoma State in 1945.

Luckily for Memphis, their team often plays so well that free throws hardly matter. With an average victory margin of roughly18 points, who cares about free throws? In that context, nobody would.

Not until now, anyway.

Michigan State shoots 73.9 percent from the line and is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation. Unless the refs give Memphis the UCLA treatment tomorrow night, the Spartans are going to get a lot of free looks from the stripe.

It also means that if Memphis finds themselves in a must foul situation late in the game, they’re probably cooked. Not only that, but if Memphis is up by two, three, or even four late in the game and gets sent to the foul line, they might not hang on to their lead.

Earlier in the week, Calipari expressed his frustration with the media when he said, “But everybody, all they want to talk about is our free-throw shooting, I don’t know why.”

If Memphis loses, he’ll know exactly why.

–Joey Alfino, RED Editorial Staff.

March 24, 2008

The Dance will never let you down (NCAA Tournament)

Filed under: NCAA Tournament, Sports — Red @ 10:18 am

I’m a huge fan of Michael Wilbon and Tony Kornheiser on ESPN’s Pardon the Interruption. Usually I agree with about 90 percent of everything they have to say, but before this year’s NCAA tournament kicked off, Wilbon said something I couldn’t get behind.

On St. Patty’s day, Wilbon said he’s not going to be like a “trained seal” overcome with uncontrollable joy every time he sees a bracket in March. He, and plenty of others, think it’s a “down year” for college basketball in general. Now that we’re out to the Sweet 16, I wonder if he’s still indifferent.

According to Wilbon, “There’s no difference between the top and bottom teams. You can call it parity. I call it mediocrity.”

But this weekend’s games have proven mediocrity doesn’t have a place in the tournament. I think Davidson, West Virginia, Villanova, and Western Kentucky would agree. So would the countless people around the nation whose brackets just got nuked by all those upsets—myself included.

For a field full of “mediocre” teams, this has been a pretty exciting tournament. If anything, perhaps the NCAA selection committee thought it was Opposite Day when they were handing out the seeds. You’ve got to admit, some the high-seeded teams only used the tournament to prove themselves overrated.

For example, Duke never played like a two seed. Georgetown didn’t look like a two seed yesterday either after blowing a 17 point second half lead over Davidson. And speaking of Davidson, I dare anyone to mention “Stephen Curry” and “mediocre” in the same breath.

You just can’t do it.

So if there’s any sign of uninspired play so far this year, it’s all at the top of heap. I wouldn’t dream of thinking this year’s teams are collectively sub-par, but apparently Duke, Georgetown, USC, Vanderbilt, Connecticut and Drake did. Look where they are now.

On the other hand, Davidson hasn’t lost a game since December 21. Curry and company are going to have their hands full again with Wisconsin. Davidson has proved they are good enough to win another game, and now we’ve got an unexpected and potentially awesome No. 3 vs. No. 10 match in the Sweet 16.

That is so not boring.

So if Wilbon wants to keep on yawning at this year’s talent, that’s fine. I can be exited for the both of us. Every time I’m given a March bracket to fill out, I start bouncing off the walls so uncontrollably that people start throwing Ritalin at me. If that means I’m a “trained seal”, so be it.

I’m fine with that.

–Joey Alfino, RED Editorial Staff

March 20, 2008

Predicting USC, KSU: Flip a coin (NCAA Tournament)

Filed under: NCAA Tournament, Sports — Red @ 9:01 am

Without doubt, the two biggest names on today’s tournament dance card are USC and Kansas State; specifically O.J. Mayo and Michael Beasley. When it came to filling out my bracket for this game, I tried everything under the sun to help me decide.

You name it, I tried it. I asked my magic 8-ball, broke out the Ouija board, had a Tarot reading, climbed a mountain in Tibet to ask a wise man and consulted the Oracle at Delphi. I ended up picking USC, but I’m still nervous about it.

The thing about the USC/KSU matchup is that, no matter how many ways you crunch the numbers, no matter how much analysis you do, there’s absolutely no way to call this came accurately. But I’m still going to try.

Just look at some of the averages. USC is 21-11, and KSU is 20-11. Their field goal percentages are .481 and .443.

USC has a three point shot percentage of .384 and averages 5.6 threes per game, KSU’s three percentage is .321 with an average of 6.5 per game.

USC makes .685 percent of their free throws. KSU makes .689.

The only average that’s terribly disproportionate is in rebounds. USC has a rebound margin of 0.5 to KSU’s 8.0, but that shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone since Beasley leads the nation in that category.

Beasley is also the third best scorer in the country as well as the presumptive first pick in the NBA draft. Beasley is a force to be reckoned with, so why wouldn’t I go with the upset?

Part of it is my gut, which has been wrong plenty of times before, and the rest of it is team cohesion.

It’s possible that Beasley can single-handedly lead the Wildcats past the Trojans. It’s possible, but not probable. For me, there’s just no guarantee that everyone on KSU’s squad is going to step up.

Inexperience plays a key in that. USC head coach Tim Floyd is no stranger to the tournament, and he’s built himself a reputation of improvisational play and adjusting his strategy (successfully) on the fly.

For KSU, tonight’s game marks the first time they’ve been to the dance in 12 years, and this is coach Frank Martin’s rookie year to boot.

Of course O.J. Mayo and Beasley are going to show up. You can count on that. But while those two are busy playing in the spotlight, it’s the rest of the team that going to make the difference. That’s where USC has the edge.

USC loves to run and show off guys like Davon Jefferson, Dwight Lewis, and Taj Gibson. So if K-State bogs down, USC will run all over them. And how could the Wildcats bog down, you ask? The answer is KSU freshman point guard Jacob Pullen. If he plays well, KSU has an edge.

If he doesn’t, USC might be a mountain that even Beasley can’t move.

–Joey Alfino, RED Editorial Staff.

March 17, 2008

Look out; Pitt could break your bracket (NCAA Basketball)

Filed under: NCAA Tournament, Sports — Red @ 12:06 pm

The NCAA Tournament is still three days off, but the upsets have already begun. Just ask Arizona State. Like the annual BCS arguments, someone always has a problem with who gets in and who stays home.

It just has to be dealt with, and that’s the end of it. Upsets in any form are what make the tournament so awesome. You can count on them like death and taxes, and this year’s heartbreaks won’t be any different.

Here’s a piece of tournament trivia for you: Did you know that, in the history of the tournament, the Final Four teams have never all been No. 1 seeds? It’s never happened. This year it might, but then again . . .

For the first time in a long time, it’s not a stretch to see all of this year’s top-seeded teams, UNC, UCLA, Memphis and KU, as the last four standing. Plenty of people are picking it, and there’s nothing wrong with it.

So the bigger question this year is, where’s Cinderella?

Keep an eye on the South Region. If I had to pick, I’d call the Southern Region the toughest one in the tournament and it’s all because of two teams—Pittsburgh and Kentucky. Those two are more than capable of surprising a lot of people.

Do I think Kentucky is good enough to go deep? No, I’m not that crazy, but I do think they can beat Marquette in a nail biter. You have to admire what Kentucky has gone through this year, and the only reason why the Wildcats are in the dance is because they found a way to really turn it on late in the season.

That’s why it’s a little sad that Kentucky will probably go one and done if they upset Marquette (odds are they’ll play Stanford in the second round), but even still, you can’t say the Wildcats didn’t have a good year.

Pittsburgh is another story. If Pitt upsets anyone it’s going to happen in the Sweet Sixteen, and (are you sitting down?) it might be against Memphis. I know. It’s a shocker, but that’s what the tournament is all about.

Pittsburgh is a tough team. The Panthers won the Big East Tournament, and they consecutively beat Louisville, Marquette and Georgetown to do it. That’s a big deal by any standard and it should be enough make people wear out their erasers when they’re filling in brackets.

For ESPN analyst Bob Knight, the Panthers’ biggest attribute is mental toughness—something Knight can easily recognize. Knight has even picked Pittsburgh to win it all. I’m not willing to go that far, but I’m willing to bet a lot of people are going to be surprised when the see the lineup on April 5.

None of them more surprised than John Calipari.

–Joey Alfino, RED Editorial Staff.

March 13, 2008

Don’t overanalyze, it won’t matter for Memphis. (NCAA Basketball)

Filed under: NCAA Tournament, Sports — Red @ 1:44 pm

Here we are, smack in the middle of NCAA Championship Week and right around the corner from Selection Sunday, when bubbles start popping and hearts start breaking all over the nation. Case and point: Syracuse is out. Portland State is in.

Life on the bubble is stressful, and those bubble teams deserve the most attention right now. That’s why I don’t understand the articles I’ve been seeing about how a powerhouse team like Memphis has everything to lose and nothing to gain this weekend. What a bunch of malarkey.

Sportsillustrated.com posted an article yesterday afternoon claiming that Memphis’ biggest challenge is assuring a No. 1 seed in the tournament this year—like getting a No. 2 seed is the end of the world for the Tigers.

First of all, the odds of Memphis not winning the Conference USA tournament are as poor as the New Jersey Institute of Technology’s 0-26 record.

Second, the Conference USA tournament is being played at FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn., so the Tigers are going to have an almost unfair home court advantage. That’s like playing the Big 12 tournament at Allen Fieldhouse and picking Colorado to win.

Third, this tournament marks the fifth straight year the Conference USA tournament has been held at FedExForum, and Memphis hasn’t lost a postseason game there since 2005.

Fourth, Memphis hasn’t lost a game to a Conference USA opponent since Alabama-Birmingham on March 2, 2006. That was 68 conference games ago.

Yet it’s still impressed upon some that if Memphis fails to win its third (yes, THIRD) straight conference championship in a row, they won’t end up with a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Instead, Memphis would have to settle for a plebeian second seed.

Is Memphis’ impressive recent history and staggeringly efficient style of play enough to guarantee them a No. 1 seed no matter what the outcome of the CUSA tourney is? Here’s the answer: it doesn’t matter.

If Memphis plays a No. 16 seed in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, (maybe American University for example), or a No. 15 seed (like San Diego), is there really a difference?

I don’t mean to slight any team that has proven itself worthy enough to punch a ticket to the dance, and we all know anything can happen in March. But just because anything CAN happen, doesn’t mean it WILL happen. If Memphis loses in the first round it won’t have anything to do with their seed.

The biggest reason why the NCAA uses a tournament ranking system in the first place is to figure out who plays whom, and that’s about it. It doesn’t have anything to do with performance on the floor or winning a championship.

The team that wins six games wins the tournament. It’s that simple. Come March 20, those parenthetical numbers next to each team’s name are only important to one group of people.

Vegas bookies.

–Joey Alfino, RED Editorial Staff

April 3, 2007

A Florida First

Filed under: NCAA Tournament — Red @ 6:08 am

Today everywhere you look, everywhere you listen, you’ll hear naysayers and sycophants blabbing away…

This tournament was rote they’ll say, this tournament was staid…

BLAH BLAH BLAH.

Let RED be the first to say – those people are morons.

You see, despite the discourse, I’ll need some time digesting the logic behind this tournament not measuring up. We watched something that had NEVER been done before in the history of college basketball - 5 starters, 2 national championships. So kindly point the idiots who say there wasn’t sufficient drama, there was sufficient tension my way, and I’ll be sure to set them straight.

Other thoughts you ask?

  • All those other ninnies who said Greg Oden isn’t ready for the pros have a whole lotta humble pie to eat. Dude was unreal. If he stays in school he needs his head examined.
  • Choosing an MOP on Florida is like picking a waitress at Hooters – tough to go wrong. Every single starter played his role to perfection…
  • Know what impressed me? Noah and Horford nailing free throws down the stretch. Here are two kids combining for some 65% from the line, but on the big stage they turned into Rick Barry, they couldn’t miss.
  • Yes, Joakim Noah is as unlikeable a 20 year old as you’ll find. But anytime a kid goes searching for his mother in the stands after a win, well, it makes it tough to put a target on his back. An awfully human moment.
  • And you know what struck me as the most poignant of all? As soon as the buzzer sounded, we saw or heard true jubilation, true passion for the accomplishment. Compare that quickly to the Superbowl in February which seemed like a funeral proceeding and you’ll see why I’ m already pining for the Great Alaska shootout.
  • And finally, I’d be remiss if I didn’t point out my prediction of a hot OSU start and a quick squash by the Gators was inevitable. Don’t worry – when I get em wrong I’ll point them out too – just don’t hold your breath…
April 2, 2007

Deja Vu All over again

Filed under: NCAA Tournament — Red @ 7:43 am

Just months ago in the BCS championship we saw a purportedly stacked Ohio State squad start with a flash, a burst of energy and emotion, only to fade away nearly immediately after. That’s because Florida didn’t panic from the haymaker delivered early on - instead they simply trusted their talent, game-plan and experience and neatly destroyed the Buckeyes for the remainder of the game. It was a thrashing.

Folks, we’ll see history repeat itself this evening. I expect Mike Conley Jr., Greg Oden, Ron Lewis and Jamaar Butler to come out firing – and hitting to boot. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take a decent early lead in the first few minutes. But then, just like in January, these Gators will respond, and they’ll do so swiftly. There’s a reason they thrashed OSU earlier this year by 26 points – they’re just that good. This team is a joy to watch, because when they hit the ‘on’ button, they really are unstoppable, it’s something to see, it really is…

And so we’ll have a repeat champion since those Duke squads of the early 90’s – something we probably could have predicted exactly a year ago today…

We’ll check in tomorrow for to wrap this sucker up – and move on to MLB.

April 1, 2007

Red Was Right

Filed under: NCAA Tournament — Red @ 3:07 pm

With tonight serving as opening day, I can’t help but have baseball on the mind. As such, I’ve spent my morning wondering if there are big league parallels between the two teams still standing – Ohio State and Florida. I thought, and thought and thought…and in the end admitted defeat – any metaphorical marriages would only have been stretches, only literary mechanisms without true resonance. But maybe that’s the beauty of NCAA hoops – nothing quite compares. Looking at our championship set, it’s clear the Gators represent one of the rarest things in the college game – a team experience - a team that has superstars that stayed a little longer than they could have, rather than should have. On the other side of the spectrum, you have a Buckeye team that is more a microcosm, for better or worse, of the college game - shooting star talents that are one and done, as most experts have Mike Conley Jr. and Greg Oden checking out for the NBA sooner rather than later. Of course RED can’t blame them – the offer of millions and a free pass out of Econ 101 would have been impossible to turn down at 22. But maybe, just maybe that’s why my gut is rooting for Florida, if only as an endorsement of ‘one more year.’

Now, red readers know we picked OSU in a tight one, FLA in a blowout - two predictions that were impeccably proven… But will we finish the year on a hot streak? Of course we will.

We’ll wait for the big pick until tomorrow – need one more night to noodle on this one…

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